Warsaw records about 529mm of rain across roughly 100 wet days a year, which is a 27% chance on an average day. July is the wettest month at 73mm (14% of the annual total) and February the driest at 26mm. Local rain type: thunderstorms. Warsaw summers bring dramatic thunderstorms — afternoon downpours from June through August can be torrential but usually pass within an hour.
Chance of rain on an average day: 27%
Rainfall climatology for Warsaw. The live hour-by-hour answer for today loads at the top of this page from Open-Meteo and refreshes through the day — the figures below describe a typical year, not today.
Last updated: · Live forecast data refreshes hourly.
| Annual rainfall | 529mm |
| Rain days per year | 100 |
| Odds on an average day | 27% |
| Wettest month | July — 73mm over 14 days |
| Driest month | February — 26mm over 5 days |
| Rain type | thunderstorms |
| Best dry window | September and early October offer warm, dry "golden Polish autumn" weather. |
| Worst rain window | June through August has the highest rainfall, concentrated in dramatic afternoon storms. |
July delivers 181% more rain than February (73mm vs 26mm). That gap is the difference between planning around showers and ignoring them.
No single month holds more than 14% of the annual total, so rain in Warsaw is spread through the year — there is no season you can rely on being dry.
Warsaw rain arrives in short, heavy bursts — shelter and timing matter more than gear.
Rain falls on about 14 days in July against 5 in February — the frequency swing matters more for planning than the millimetre totals.
Climate normals. Use them to judge whether today's live forecast at the top of the page is typical or unusual for the season.
| Month | Rainfall | Rain days | Chance on a given day | Highs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 28mm | 5 | 17% | 1°C |
| February | 26mm | 5 | 17% | 1°C |
| March | 29mm | 6 | 20% | 5°C |
| April | 38mm | 7 | 23% | 10°C |
| May | 54mm | 10 | 33% | 16°C |
| June | 69mm | 13 | 43% | 21°C |
| July | 73mm | 14 | 47% | 25°C |
| August | 60mm | 11 | 37% | 25°C |
| September | 45mm | 9 | 30% | 21°C |
| October | 33mm | 6 | 20% | 16°C |
| November | 38mm | 7 | 23% | 10°C |
| December | 34mm | 6 | 20% | 5°C |
Rain probability is the chance that at least 0.2mm falls at your location — not how long it rains. For Warsaw we combine the hourly probability curve, expected volume in millimetres, and the city's own rainfall record into a single umbrella verdict.
| Factor | Weight | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Hourly probability | 40% | Peak and sustained chance of measurable rain across the next 24 hours. |
| Expected volume | 30% | Total millimetres, which separates a passing shower from a genuine soaking. |
| Timing & duration | 20% | When rain starts, when it eases, and the longest continuous dry window. |
| Local rain type | 10% | Drizzle, brief showers, thunderstorms or monsoon — each needs different gear. |
Live hourly values come from Open-Meteo and refresh through the day. Monthly rainfall figures are climate normals, so they describe a typical year rather than a forecast.
Warsaw records rain on roughly 100 days a year — about a 27% chance on any given day — totalling around 529mm.
July, with about 73mm over 14 rain days. That is 14% of the entire year's rainfall in a single month.
February is the driest month at 26mm across roughly 5 days. September and early October offer warm, dry "golden Polish autumn" weather.
Warsaw summers bring dramatic thunderstorms — afternoon downpours from June through August can be torrential but usually pass within an hour.
No. Probability is the chance that at least 0.2mm of rain falls at your location at some point in the period. Check the expected millimetres alongside it: 40% with 0.4mm is a passing shower, 40% with 12mm is a soaking.