Tulum records about 1100mm of rain across roughly 100 wet days a year, which is a 27% chance on an average day. October is the wettest month at 200mm (18% of the annual total) and March the driest at 25mm. Local rain type: thunderstorms. Tulum's dry season (December-April) is ideal for beach days. Hurricane season (June-November) brings afternoon thunderstorms and occasional tropical storms, but mornings are usually clear.
Chance of rain on an average day: 27%
Rainfall climatology for Tulum. The live hour-by-hour answer for today loads at the top of this page from Open-Meteo and refreshes through the day — the figures below describe a typical year, not today.
Last updated: · Live forecast data refreshes hourly.
| Annual rainfall | 1100mm |
| Rain days per year | 100 |
| Odds on an average day | 27% |
| Wettest month | October — 200mm over 18 days |
| Driest month | March — 25mm over 2 days |
| Rain type | thunderstorms |
| Best dry window | February through April offers the driest weather with warm Caribbean breezes and no seaweed. |
| Worst rain window | September and October bring the highest hurricane risk and heaviest sustained rainfall. |
October delivers 700% more rain than March (200mm vs 25mm). That gap is the difference between planning around showers and ignoring them.
No single month holds more than 18% of the annual total, so rain in Tulum is spread through the year — there is no season you can rely on being dry.
Tulum rain arrives in short, heavy bursts — shelter and timing matter more than gear.
Rain falls on about 18 days in October against 2 in March — the frequency swing matters more for planning than the millimetre totals.
Climate normals. Use them to judge whether today's live forecast at the top of the page is typical or unusual for the season.
| Month | Rainfall | Rain days | Chance on a given day | Highs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 50mm | 5 | 17% | 29°C |
| February | 35mm | 3 | 10% | 29°C |
| March | 25mm | 2 | 7% | 30°C |
| April | 30mm | 3 | 10% | 31°C |
| May | 80mm | 7 | 23% | 32°C |
| June | 140mm | 13 | 43% | 33°C |
| July | 110mm | 10 | 33% | 34°C |
| August | 130mm | 12 | 40% | 34°C |
| September | 190mm | 17 | 57% | 33°C |
| October | 200mm | 18 | 60% | 32°C |
| November | 80mm | 7 | 23% | 31°C |
| December | 40mm | 4 | 13% | 30°C |
Rain probability is the chance that at least 0.2mm falls at your location — not how long it rains. For Tulum we combine the hourly probability curve, expected volume in millimetres, and the city's own rainfall record into a single umbrella verdict.
| Factor | Weight | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Hourly probability | 40% | Peak and sustained chance of measurable rain across the next 24 hours. |
| Expected volume | 30% | Total millimetres, which separates a passing shower from a genuine soaking. |
| Timing & duration | 20% | When rain starts, when it eases, and the longest continuous dry window. |
| Local rain type | 10% | Drizzle, brief showers, thunderstorms or monsoon — each needs different gear. |
Live hourly values come from Open-Meteo and refresh through the day. Monthly rainfall figures are climate normals, so they describe a typical year rather than a forecast.
Tulum records rain on roughly 100 days a year — about a 27% chance on any given day — totalling around 1100mm.
October, with about 200mm over 18 rain days. That is 18% of the entire year's rainfall in a single month.
March is the driest month at 25mm across roughly 2 days. February through April offers the driest weather with warm Caribbean breezes and no seaweed.
Tulum's dry season (December-April) is ideal for beach days. Hurricane season (June-November) brings afternoon thunderstorms and occasional tropical storms, but mornings are usually clear.
No. Probability is the chance that at least 0.2mm of rain falls at your location at some point in the period. Check the expected millimetres alongside it: 40% with 0.4mm is a passing shower, 40% with 12mm is a soaking.