Melbourne records about 648mm of rain across roughly 106 wet days a year, which is a 29% chance on an average day. October is the wettest month at 67mm (10% of the annual total) and February the driest at 47mm. Local rain type: brief showers. Always carry layers AND an umbrella — Melbourne famously experiences 'four seasons in one day.' Showers can appear at any time, any month.
Chance of rain on an average day: 29%
Rainfall climatology for Melbourne. The live hour-by-hour answer for today loads at the top of this page from Open-Meteo and refreshes through the day — the figures below describe a typical year, not today.
Last updated: · Live forecast data refreshes hourly.
| Annual rainfall | 648mm |
| Rain days per year | 106 |
| Odds on an average day | 29% |
| Wettest month | October — 67mm over 11 days |
| Driest month | February — 47mm over 8 days |
| Rain type | brief showers |
| Best dry window | January through March offers the warmest, driest conditions — though heat waves above 40°C are possible. |
| Worst rain window | October and November bring the most changeable conditions with spring storms and unpredictable swings. |
October delivers 43% more rain than February (67mm vs 47mm). That gap is the difference between planning around showers and ignoring them.
No single month holds more than 10% of the annual total, so rain in Melbourne is spread through the year — there is no season you can rely on being dry.
Melbourne rain typically comes as discrete showers, so a compact umbrella and a flexible plan are usually enough.
Rain falls on about 11 days in October against 8 in February — the frequency swing matters more for planning than the millimetre totals.
Climate normals. Use them to judge whether today's live forecast at the top of the page is typical or unusual for the season.
| Month | Rainfall | Rain days | Chance on a given day | Highs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 48mm | 8 | 27% | 26°C |
| February | 47mm | 8 | 27% | 26°C |
| March | 50mm | 8 | 27% | 24°C |
| April | 57mm | 9 | 30% | 21°C |
| May | 56mm | 9 | 30% | 18°C |
| June | 49mm | 8 | 27% | 15°C |
| July | 48mm | 8 | 27% | 13°C |
| August | 50mm | 8 | 27% | 13°C |
| September | 58mm | 9 | 30% | 15°C |
| October | 67mm | 11 | 37% | 18°C |
| November | 60mm | 10 | 33% | 21°C |
| December | 59mm | 10 | 33% | 24°C |
Rain probability is the chance that at least 0.2mm falls at your location — not how long it rains. For Melbourne we combine the hourly probability curve, expected volume in millimetres, and the city's own rainfall record into a single umbrella verdict.
| Factor | Weight | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Hourly probability | 40% | Peak and sustained chance of measurable rain across the next 24 hours. |
| Expected volume | 30% | Total millimetres, which separates a passing shower from a genuine soaking. |
| Timing & duration | 20% | When rain starts, when it eases, and the longest continuous dry window. |
| Local rain type | 10% | Drizzle, brief showers, thunderstorms or monsoon — each needs different gear. |
Live hourly values come from Open-Meteo and refresh through the day. Monthly rainfall figures are climate normals, so they describe a typical year rather than a forecast.
Melbourne records rain on roughly 106 days a year — about a 29% chance on any given day — totalling around 648mm.
October, with about 67mm over 11 rain days. That is 10% of the entire year's rainfall in a single month.
February is the driest month at 47mm across roughly 8 days. January through March offers the warmest, driest conditions — though heat waves above 40°C are possible.
Always carry layers AND an umbrella — Melbourne famously experiences 'four seasons in one day.' Showers can appear at any time, any month.
No. Probability is the chance that at least 0.2mm of rain falls at your location at some point in the period. Check the expected millimetres alongside it: 40% with 0.4mm is a passing shower, 40% with 12mm is a soaking.