Cabo San Lucas records about 198mm of rain across roughly 22 wet days a year, which is a 6% chance on an average day. September is the wettest month at 55mm (28% of the annual total) and March the driest at 1mm. Local rain type: brief showers. Cabo is desert-dry most of the year. The brief late-summer tropical rain season (August-October) brings dramatic but short-lived storms.
Chance of rain on an average day: 6%
Rainfall climatology for Cabo San Lucas. The live hour-by-hour answer for today loads at the top of this page from Open-Meteo and refreshes through the day — the figures below describe a typical year, not today.
Last updated: · Live forecast data refreshes hourly.
| Annual rainfall | 198mm |
| Rain days per year | 22 |
| Odds on an average day | 6% |
| Wettest month | September — 55mm over 6 days |
| Driest month | March — 1mm over 1 days |
| Rain type | brief showers |
| Best dry window | November through June offers virtually guaranteed dry conditions. |
| Worst rain window | September and October bring tropical storm risk — usually brief but potentially intense. |
September delivers 5400% more rain than March (55mm vs 1mm). That gap is the difference between planning around showers and ignoring them.
28% of the year's rain falls in September alone, so Cabo San Lucas has a genuine wet season rather than evenly spread showers.
Cabo San Lucas rain typically comes as discrete showers, so a compact umbrella and a flexible plan are usually enough.
Rain falls on about 6 days in September against 1 in March — the frequency swing matters more for planning than the millimetre totals.
Climate normals. Use them to judge whether today's live forecast at the top of the page is typical or unusual for the season.
| Month | Rainfall | Rain days | Chance on a given day | Highs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 15mm | 2 | 7% | 24°C |
| February | 3mm | 1 | 3% | 24°C |
| March | 1mm | 1 | 3% | 26°C |
| April | 1mm | 1 | 3% | 28°C |
| May | 1mm | 1 | 3% | 32°C |
| June | 5mm | 1 | 3% | 34°C |
| July | 21mm | 2 | 7% | 36°C |
| August | 34mm | 4 | 13% | 36°C |
| September | 55mm | 6 | 20% | 34°C |
| October | 35mm | 4 | 13% | 32°C |
| November | 8mm | 1 | 3% | 28°C |
| December | 10mm | 1 | 3% | 26°C |
Rain probability is the chance that at least 0.2mm falls at your location — not how long it rains. For Cabo San Lucas we combine the hourly probability curve, expected volume in millimetres, and the city's own rainfall record into a single umbrella verdict.
| Factor | Weight | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Hourly probability | 40% | Peak and sustained chance of measurable rain across the next 24 hours. |
| Expected volume | 30% | Total millimetres, which separates a passing shower from a genuine soaking. |
| Timing & duration | 20% | When rain starts, when it eases, and the longest continuous dry window. |
| Local rain type | 10% | Drizzle, brief showers, thunderstorms or monsoon — each needs different gear. |
Live hourly values come from Open-Meteo and refresh through the day. Monthly rainfall figures are climate normals, so they describe a typical year rather than a forecast.
Cabo San Lucas records rain on roughly 22 days a year — about a 6% chance on any given day — totalling around 198mm.
September, with about 55mm over 6 rain days. That is 28% of the entire year's rainfall in a single month.
March is the driest month at 1mm across roughly 1 days. November through June offers virtually guaranteed dry conditions.
Cabo is desert-dry most of the year. The brief late-summer tropical rain season (August-October) brings dramatic but short-lived storms.
No. Probability is the chance that at least 0.2mm of rain falls at your location at some point in the period. Check the expected millimetres alongside it: 40% with 0.4mm is a passing shower, 40% with 12mm is a soaking.