February scores 90/100 for outdoor ceremonies: very low rain risk (3 wet days, 18mm), 22°C afternoons cooling to about 18°C for the reception, and 13.7 hours of daylight for the photography schedule. July is the month to avoid at 26/100.
February outdoor ceremony score: 90/100
Climate normals for Tasmania rescored on wedding-specific weighting. Once your date falls inside the 14-day window the live forecast on this page takes over.
Conditions on this page are recalculated from the latest forecast every time it is opened, for the current date in the location's own time zone. Showing .
| Best wedding month | February — 90/100 |
| Second choice | December — 90/100 |
| Month to avoid | July — 26/100 |
| Rain risk in the best month | Very low — rain on about 3 days |
| Guest comfort | 100/100 at 22°C |
| Reception temperature | ≈ 18°C after sunset in February |
| Photo light | 11h of sun across a 13.7h day |
| Months scoring 65+ | 5 of 12 |
February keeps seated guests at 22°C in the afternoon and around 18°C after sunset — the closest Tasmania gets to a ceremony that needs neither shade structures nor patio heaters.
Rain falls on roughly 3 days in February (very low risk, 18mm). A simple marquee-on-standby is usually enough.
February gives 13.7 hours of daylight and about 11 hours of direct sun per day, so a late-afternoon ceremony puts portraits inside golden hour rather than after it.
July scores 26/100 for weddings in Tasmania: 12°C highs, 90mm of rain and 7°C evenings make a fully outdoor plan fragile.
Scored on rain risk, guest comfort, evening temperature and photographic light — deliberately different weighting from the travel score.
| Month | Wedding score | Rain risk | Afternoon | Evening | Guest comfort | Photo light |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 88/100 | Very low (3 days) | 23°C | 19°C | 96/100 | 96/100 |
| February | 90/100 | Very low (3 days) | 22°C | 18°C | 100/100 | 94/100 |
| March | 77/100 | Low (5 days) | 20°C | 16°C | 93/100 | 78/100 |
| April | 56/100 | Moderate (9 days) | 18°C | 13°C | 86/100 | 48/100 |
| May | 33/100 | Moderate (13 days) | 15°C | 10°C | 76/100 | 11/100 |
| June | 28/100 | High (15 days) | 13°C | 8°C | 69/100 | 0/100 |
| July | 26/100 | High (15 days) | 12°C | 7°C | 66/100 | 0/100 |
| August | 28/100 | High (15 days) | 13°C | 8°C | 69/100 | 0/100 |
| September | 34/100 | Moderate (13 days) | 15°C | 10°C | 76/100 | 15/100 |
| October | 56/100 | Moderate (9 days) | 18°C | 13°C | 86/100 | 52/100 |
| November | 78/100 | Low (5 days) | 20°C | 16°C | 93/100 | 82/100 |
| December | 90/100 | Very low (3 days) | 22°C | 18°C | 100/100 | 97/100 |
Wedding weather is scored differently from travel weather: seated guests in formalwear tolerate a narrower band than sightseers, and the ceremony hour matters more than the daily average. Each month in Tasmania is scored 0–100 on the weighting below.
| Factor | Weight | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Dry conditions | 38% | Share of days with measurable rain — the single factor most likely to force a backup plan. |
| Guest comfort | 27% | Distance from a 22°C daytime ideal, with an extra penalty for humid heat above 24°C. |
| Evening temperature | 20% | Modelled reception-hour temperature against an 18°C ideal for an outdoor evening. |
| Photo light | 15% | Sunshine hours and daylight length, which set the length and quality of the golden hour window. |
Based on long-run climate averages rather than a forecast. Plan the ceremony around the golden hour — see golden hour times for Tasmania linked below.
February, at 90/100. It combines very low rain risk with 22°C afternoons and roughly 18°C evenings, which is the most forgiving combination Tasmania offers for seated guests.
July scores 26/100: 12°C highs, 90mm of rain over about 15 days and 7°C evenings make a fully outdoor plan fragile.
In February rain falls on roughly 3 of 30 days, so the single-day probability is about 10%. In July that rises to about 50%.
A marquee on standby is usually enough in February, where rain risk is very low. Outside the 5 months scoring 65 or higher, book real covered space.
February gives 13.7 hours of daylight and about 11 hours of direct sun. Put portraits in the final 60–90 minutes of daylight so they land inside golden hour rather than after it.