July scores 85/100 for outdoor ceremonies: very low rain risk (2 wet days, 15mm), 22°C afternoons cooling to about 14°C for the reception, and 11.9 hours of daylight for the photography schedule. May is the month to avoid at 43/100.
July outdoor ceremony score: 85/100
Climate normals for Nairobi rescored on wedding-specific weighting. Once your date falls inside the 14-day window the live forecast on this page takes over.
Last updated: · Live forecast data refreshes hourly.
| Best wedding month | July — 85/100 |
| Second choice | January — 82/100 |
| Month to avoid | May — 43/100 |
| Rain risk in the best month | Very low — rain on about 2 days |
| Guest comfort | 100/100 at 22°C |
| Reception temperature | ≈ 14°C after sunset in July |
| Photo light | 8h of sun across a 11.9h day |
| Months scoring 65+ | 7 of 12 |
July keeps seated guests at 22°C in the afternoon and around 14°C after sunset — the closest Nairobi gets to a ceremony that needs neither shade structures nor patio heaters.
Rain falls on roughly 2 days in July (very low risk, 15mm). A simple marquee-on-standby is usually enough.
July gives 11.9 hours of daylight and about 8 hours of direct sun per day, so a late-afternoon ceremony puts portraits inside golden hour rather than after it.
May scores 43/100 for weddings in Nairobi: 23°C highs, 158mm of rain and 15°C evenings make a fully outdoor plan fragile.
Scored on rain risk, guest comfort, evening temperature and photographic light — deliberately different weighting from the travel score.
| Month | Wedding score | Rain risk | Afternoon | Evening | Guest comfort | Photo light |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 82/100 | Low (4 days) | 25°C | 17°C | 87/100 | 88/100 |
| February | 71/100 | Low (7 days) | 25°C | 17°C | 87/100 | 78/100 |
| March | 46/100 | High (14 days) | 25°C | 17°C | 87/100 | 26/100 |
| April | 43/100 | High (23 days) | 24°C | 16°C | 92/100 | 0/100 |
| May | 43/100 | High (17 days) | 23°C | 15°C | 96/100 | 0/100 |
| June | 71/100 | Low (5 days) | 22°C | 14°C | 100/100 | 42/100 |
| July | 85/100 | Very low (2 days) | 22°C | 14°C | 100/100 | 73/100 |
| August | 82/100 | Very low (3 days) | 22°C | 14°C | 100/100 | 70/100 |
| September | 82/100 | Very low (3 days) | 22°C | 14°C | 100/100 | 70/100 |
| October | 69/100 | Low (6 days) | 23°C | 15°C | 96/100 | 46/100 |
| November | 46/100 | Moderate (12 days) | 24°C | 16°C | 92/100 | 12/100 |
| December | 59/100 | Moderate (9 days) | 25°C | 17°C | 87/100 | 43/100 |
Wedding weather is scored differently from travel weather: seated guests in formalwear tolerate a narrower band than sightseers, and the ceremony hour matters more than the daily average. Each month in Nairobi is scored 0–100 on the weighting below.
| Factor | Weight | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Dry conditions | 38% | Share of days with measurable rain — the single factor most likely to force a backup plan. |
| Guest comfort | 27% | Distance from a 22°C daytime ideal, with an extra penalty for humid heat above 24°C. |
| Evening temperature | 20% | Modelled reception-hour temperature against an 18°C ideal for an outdoor evening. |
| Photo light | 15% | Sunshine hours and daylight length, which set the length and quality of the golden hour window. |
Based on long-run climate averages rather than a forecast. Plan the ceremony around the golden hour — see golden hour times for Nairobi linked below.
July, at 85/100. It combines very low rain risk with 22°C afternoons and roughly 14°C evenings, which is the most forgiving combination Nairobi offers for seated guests.
May scores 43/100: 23°C highs, 158mm of rain over about 17 days and 15°C evenings make a fully outdoor plan fragile.
In July rain falls on roughly 2 of 30 days, so the single-day probability is about 7%. In May that rises to about 57%.
A marquee on standby is usually enough in July, where rain risk is very low. Outside the 7 months scoring 65 or higher, book real covered space.
July gives 11.9 hours of daylight and about 8 hours of direct sun. Put portraits in the final 60–90 minutes of daylight so they land inside golden hour rather than after it.