Conditions on this page are recalculated from the latest forecast every time it is opened, for the current date in the location's own time zone.
0-3 days forecasts are highly accurate with temperature predictions within 2-3°C. 4-7 days show good accuracy for general patterns. 8-14 days provide useful trends only, and beyond 14 days forecasts are based more on climatology than specific predictions. It means if these atmospheric conditions occurred many times, 40% of those occasions would produce measurable rain at your location. It does NOT mean 40% of the area will get rain or 40% of the day will be rainy. Weather forecasting faces a fundamental mathematical limitation called chaos. Small uncertainties in initial conditions grow exponentially over time, eventually overwhelming the forecast signal. This is known as the butterfly effect. Ensemble forecasting runs multiple forecast models (20, 50, or more) with slightly different starting conditions to estimate forecast uncertainty. The range of outcomes shows how predictable the weather actually is. Learn how weather forecasts work, why they are sometimes wrong, and how to interpret forecast data for better decision-making. Master the nuances of modern meteorological predictions. "40% chance of rain" — does that mean 40% of your day is wet, or something else entirely? Most people read forecasts wrong, make bad decisions from correct data, and blame the weather service. Here's how forecasts actually work and how to use them to make better calls. Today's weather forecasts are technological marvels, combining global observation networks, supercomputers, and sophisticated mathematics. Understanding this process helps explain both the accuracy and limitations of predictions. Every forecast begins with observations. The global weather observation system includes thousands of surface stations, weather balloons launched twice daily, satellites providing continuous imagery, commercial aircraft reporting atmospheric conditions, ocean buoys, and radar detecting precipitation. Modern forecasts rely on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models—computer simulations that divide the atmosphere into a three-dimensional grid and calculate how conditions will evolve based on physics equations. These models solve equations for fluid dynamics (air movement), thermodynamics (temperature changes), radiation (heating from sun, cooling to space), water phase changes (evaporation, condensation, freezing), and surface interactions. A single forecast run requires trillions of calculations. The famous "butterfly effect" describes a real property of atmospheric dynamics. Tiny measurement errors, unobserved conditions, and approximations in model physics all introduce small uncertainties. These uncertainties compound with each time step of the simulation. High accuracy. Temperature predictions within 2-3°C, rain timing within a few hours. You can plan with confidence. Useful trends only. Broad patterns may be predictable, but day-to-day specifics are unreliable. Statistical guidance only. Predictions are based more on climatology than specific atmospheric prediction. Modern forecasts increasingly express uncertainty through probabilities rather than definitive predictions. Understanding what these numbers mean is crucial for good decision-making. When a forecast says "40% chance of rain," it means: if these atmospheric conditions occurred many times, 40% of those occasions would produce measurable rain at your location. One of the most important advances in modern forecasting is ensemble prediction—running multiple forecast models with slightly different starting conditions to estimate forecast uncertainty. Instead of running one forecast, meteorologists run 20, 50, or more forecasts with small variations in initial conditions. The range of outcomes shows how predictable the weather actually is. Different forecasting systems emphasize different factors. Weather agencies, commercial services, and specialized apps all have strengths and weaknesses. Checking multiple sources gives you a sense of forecast agreement—consensus across sources suggests higher confidence. Forecasts improve as the event approaches. A 7-day forecast is a starting point; refine your plans as updates arrive. Pay particular attention to forecast "jumps"—significant changes between updates often indicate an uncertain situation. Instead of planning for the forecast's specific prediction, plan for a range of outcomes. If the forecast shows a high of 22°C but ensemble spread suggests 19-25°C is possible, prepare for that range.
Scores are capped by dealbreakers — heavy rain, dangerous wind, thick fog or hazardous UV pull a day down no matter how pleasant the rest of the numbers look. Forecast data is Open-Meteo; solar and lunar values are computed for Understanding Forecasts's own coordinates and time zone. Full details on the methodology page.